They said

For all of those who follow me on EStaloteSAssets, Twitter or LinkedIn, what is happening in the financial markets has not surprised them at all. I was very skeptical to many managers, institutions and of course catastrophic policies that today still go on. Many criticized me for the skepticism, but in the end, as usual, history and time have justified my comments with solid facts.

A recession is almost inevitable, this means hard times and unfortunately as I said in previous articles, populism will stay for a while. Many people will still support these damaging “policies” due to desperation, but we should not fall into their game, we must keep it cool. It is very difficult to anticipate a recession because statistical data always tends to be late.

Now is not the  time to panic. It is the best time to invest your savings as well as to do business. Remember that the great fortunes are built on these scenarios, so keep fighting. Some corporate bankruptcies will be due to financial excesses and bad management (there are also fraudulent cases very difficult to detect). As I warned you before, and I will do it one more time, I did bet AGAINST the market but I DO NOT advise you to do it at these levels because world leaders are going to meet in order to "solve this crisis". With the help of central banks, they will try to pull their shit together and put their differences aside (hopefully).

Every crisis is the same, and this time the trigger was a pandemic, so let me be clear if you did not bet against the market 4 months ago, please do not do it now that the world powers are working together, that would be stupid, so move on. This market will recover at these prices because right now there are so many great shares at great value. I think many of you are very pesimistic right now, but now it is time to be optimistic. I am happy that I got it right with my predictions about the market but I am not happy with what is going to happen in the coming months, because the market will recover slowly, but many people are going to suffer from the incompetence of certain people.

Be careful with “fake investors”, people dedicated mainly to scam other people providing investment courses. There are also funds that use Value Investing as a marketing tool to attract clients. I will not give names, you can play detective yourself and investigate them. One of the first things that you have to do now is to silence on your phone those wonderful analysts who have recommended you to buy that stock and bond… yes, you know who I am talking about, don’t fool yourself (we all make mistakes, but some make the same mistake systematically). Avoid the analysts who told you that the market was and is living a simple correction (even when Standard and Poor's 500 was at 3,300 points and a price earnings ratio above 26), avoid them because they said “just a correction” they continued “buy the dip” without any good explanation. You must block them, NOT because of that, but because they will mostly distract you when you need to be focused and the right time comes. Many of them now say "time to get out of the market". Do not do it now! Why are they going to be right this time? Now is the time to BUY, so stay focused!

It is worth to remember that bear markets do not last too long and that bull markets are not forever. Forget the excuses like "there is nowhere to invest in a bear market". It is very easy to invest when things look good, but now that things are not looking so good many “investors”, who earned money on the stock market without having studied a single stock (bonds, commodities, CFDs etc) previously, now realize that investing is not like playing Russian roulette. God bless the economic cycles, which do not stop teaching us important lessons that will later be forgotten again by millions of people. Allow me to repeat myself, patience is necessary and the market rewards it.

Timing is one of the most important things when investing, as well as patience, determination and analytical skills. As investors we must remember, stocks that are cheap today may end up being overvalued in the future, just like the stocks that are expensive now can become undervalued later. For example, four industries that have not performed particularly well in recent years and have depreciated; automotive sector (which I warned in early 2018), mining sector, airlines and energy are now much more attractive and a good opportunity to invest long-term (as long as you know how to choose companies with good fundamentals). But as always, this is NOT buying advice, it is just my opinion and what I do with my savings, which by the way, I have done very well until now, as people who have followed me for years can see.

Many of you also tell me that you do not have the time to analyze companies or investigate funds, I would suggest an ETF or a fund index focused for example in the  S&P500 (Differences between ETF & Fund Index https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/etf-vs-mutual-fund ), Fidelity, Vanguard and Amundi are pretty good (really nice prices). For more information you can visit their official pages, but there is a wide range to choose from. The stock market is one of the best choices to optimize long-term savings, as long as you do NOT need that money in the near future. I believe that the stock market is a better choice than the bond market (unless you are a very good bond trader specialized in companies in complicated situations and in risk of default), but it is just an example and there are many more.

For a real value investor there is nothing more beautiful than these discounts all over the stock market and finding more and more pearls that will provide us with very interesting returns. I have no words to describe this feeling.

I will not talk about debt and central banks balance sheets because I am just tired of it and you all know my point of view. I will not be sharing any more articles publically for a while (I will do only private work), but if you want to contact me you know how to do it. Good luck!

A good investment

I wanted to post this “article” for a long time ago. People ask economists for answers that they don’t really have, this is the truth. People need trust, people want us to tell them what to do, and we don’t know it always. Properly combining limited knowledge and the need for public policy together with common sense is the key.

I think we should talk about the main cause of poverty. In a democratic environment you must believe and feel that you have opportunities and access to a fair portion of the pie. I do not think anyone believes that everyone should be successful but at least they should feel they have the opportunity to do so, for example if someone has good ideas or work for it, then they may be successful and feel it. It is essential to start from the base that opportunities are there for everyone and not just for a few. If we lose that feeling, as it is the case of Spain among with many other countries, the political consequences are disastrous. But how did we start it? We have disregarded education, the pillar of our society. We have left education in the hands of the politicians who change the model very periodically with worse and worse results. Spain has done very little to make teaching attractive, the main problem is the lack of relevance that students see in teaching. 

For example, in Spain we have 25 textbooks for a single subject, the culpable of this as well as in many other fields the Spanish autonomies, as usual. We have a very decentralized system that causes a deterioration of the Spanish educational system and polarizes it by regions. The ANELE denounced that the disparate requirements of the Spaniard autonomous governments, lead a publisher to publish each year an average of up to 25 different textbooks for the same subject of the same mandatory course. It provokes an increase of the prices in these manuals, which deteriorates the coherence of the educative system; it is more than proved that nowadays there is too much diversity in these manuals. It is hard to believe that a student from Galicia, a region from Spain, studies the history of Spain with different content than a student from Andalucia another region of Spain, and this is just an example.

This is very sad because those who do not have a good educational base stay in the margins of society. Students are not offered more options to learn differently. In Japan, the language teacher works with the mathematics teacher. Finland has also begun to deliver these multidisciplinary courses, hoping that students will act as historians, philosophers or scientists. We must teach fewer things but in more depth, Spaniard students are good at memorizing, but they have trouble solving complex problems. Teachers have to leave the classroom and look at what other teachers do, do not divide the contents so much by subject and we must bet on the integration of the subjects and the diversity of itineraries. –Tell me and I’ll forget, show me and I may remember. Involve me and I learn- Benjamin Franklin.

In order not to blame just the state and independently of the country, parents must rethink what they are teaching wrong to their children because this is not just a school problem; manners and bases are taught in home. It is enough fail parenting strategies please! Stop telling your children they are special all the time, stop telling them that they have everything they want in life just because they want it, stop giving medals for being last because devalues the reward of the ones who really work hard. In an instant they will realize they are not as special as their parents make them believe, in the real world they will find out that their mom can not help them to achieve the promotion in that job they want just because they want it.

So in the end we have an entire generation that it is growing up with lower self-esteem than previous generations. Most of them are growing up in a Facebook, Instagram world where they are good at putting filters on things and showing everyone that life is awesome even if they are depressed. They believe they are so tough but the reality is that there is not toughness on it and most of people have not figured it out yet. Many “kids” don’t know how to form deep meaningful relationships, most of their friendships are superficial, they would not rely on their friends they just have fun with them and for sure they know that their friends will cancel out them if something better comes along. So they do not have the skills to deal with the stress of the harsh reality, they are turning to a social media device, which offers temporary relief. Science proves that people who spend more time in social media suffers high rates of depression. There is nothing wrong with social media and cellphones it is the imbalance. For example, if you are siting at lunch with the ones you want or a meeting and you are texting at the same time to someone who is not there and you are supposed to be listening and speaking, that is a problem, bad education, an addiction. Like every addiction in time it will destroy relationships, it will cost time, it will cost money and at the end it will make your life worse. Another problem of this generation is impatience, because they are growing up in a world of instant gratification. One day if it is not too late they will realize they can not have job satisfaction and strength of relationships with an app. They have to learn confidence, learn patience, learn the social skills, find a better balance between life and technology because it is the RIGHT thing to do.

In conclusion, the more advanced countries have not politicized education the way Spain has done for almost 41 years, the advanced countries have reached a consensus because they know that education is an investment with long-term guarantees. It is a shame for a developed country like Spain that 35% of the young Spaniards between 25 and 34 years old does not have the high school, double that in the OECD. If people do not participate in the reforms and do not help, nothing is going to be achieved. We must depoliticize education through consensus. This causes ignorance in the population and instability for future generations. We live in a world full of radicalism in which it is easy to fall if we do not take action and we must eradicate it on time before it is too late. As well as the independence movements in Galicia, Basque Country and Catalonia, the islamophobia or hate to any ethnic group we are human beings with the gift of reason, let’s use it because the best weapon against radicalism is education as Nelson Mandela said -Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world-, and our job is to change this world we live in a better place.

¿En qué entrada estamos?

Ante unos tipos de interés tan bajos y rentabilidad prácticamente nula, los bancos se encuentran con la necesidad de una demanda solvente de créditos, debemos tener en cuenta que la banca aún posee unos costes generales elevados a pesar de los numerosos recortes que se han producido a lo largo de estos últimos meses. Hay que hacer un especial hincapié en la enorme necesidad por parte de la banca española, de incrementar la inversión para adaptarse al cambio digital. Por eso los máximos responsables bancarios y en especial los inversores no deben despistarse por haber superado con "éxito" el test de estrés, aunque siempre suelen pasar cosas raras después de las pruebas de esfuerzo, sin ir más lejos Bankia.

Es posible que la banca española sufra más la quiebra técnica del banco más antiguo del mundo, el Monte dei Paschi di Siena que el Brexit. Más que nada porque ya van dos inyecciones públicas de Italia para evitar la quiebra de este banco, pero lo más preocupante es que la deuda pública italiana es del 132% de su PIB. Los ciudadanos italianos tienen 200.000 millones invertidos en bonos de la banca, cosa que no invita a la tranquilidad. Por mucho que la Comisión Europea conceda al Gobierno italiano una "garantía pública" de 150.000 millones durante 6 meses para proporcionar liquidez, esto no va a resolver el problema de SOLVENCIA, ya que el problema de la banca italiana no es de liquidez, (repito) es de SOLVENCIA. Tiene 360.000 millones en créditos morosos y de dudoso cobro.

 

Muchos estarán pensando que el caso de la banca italiana, es similar al de la banca española (que con la "implementación" del banco malo dio muy buenos resultados) pero para el caso de Italia esto no será posible porque a diferencia que en España, los bancos italianos han acumulado numerosos impagos de préstamos empresariales, y recordemos que en España fue debido a la herencia de la burbuja inmobiliaria. La morosidad supone el 16,7% en Italia, mientras que en España es de 7,1% y en Alemania del 3,4%.

No es la banca italiana la que más preocupa, ni la portuguesa sino la Alemana, con sólo decir que el Deutsche Bank es el contribuyente neto más importante al riesgo sistemático por delante de HSBC y Credit Suisse lo que podría hacer tambalear el sistema financiero internacional de forma inminente. Por cierto Deutsche Bank equivale al 55% del PIB alemán (la locomotora europea). La crisis bancaria en Italia podría contagiarse al resto de Europa, por ello no vale decir que la banca española pasa con holgura el examen, debemos reajustar las normas de la UE y no sólo nacionales para evitar una posible recesión o catástrofe bancaria, pero como decía Thomas Jefferson:

"Una sola cosa nos explica bien la historia y es en qué consisten los malos gobiernos".

Esta vez cuando escuchen la famosa frase de Voltaire:

"Si alguna vez, ve saltar por la ventana a un banquero suizo, salte detrás. Seguro que hay algo que ganar"

Por favor no salten.

Los errores de la planificación

      Con los nuevos datos de empleo podríamos asegurar que se ha parado el proceso de destrucción de empleo. Debemos impulsar el proceso de creación de empleo, eliminando obstáculos como la dificultad de reducir los sueldos nominales y de esta forma hacer que nuestras empresas ganen competitividad. Abaratar el despido podría ser una forma de elevar el numero de contratos indefinidos frente a los contratos temporales. Es necesario mejorar las políticas activas de empleo para facilitar a los trabajadores con un nivel de cualificación bajo la posibilidad de encontrar trabajo. Por otra parte también es cierto que, el autoempleo y las cotizaciones en España siguen siendo muy onerosas, lo que genera una fuga importante de capital que se asienta en otros países europeos, donde el coste y tiempo de creación de una empresa es mucho menor que en España.

      Es normal que la economía española creciera un 3,2% en 2015. Ya que la depreciación del euro y las políticas expansivas del Banco Central Europeo junto con el abaratamiento del petróleo, han aportado a la tasa del crecimiento del PIB español un 0,06% cada uno de estos factores, y la rebaja fiscal aprobada por el Gobierno en 2015 un 0,05%. No hay duda de que los efectos de estos factores sobre la economía nacional cada vez serán menores. Es necesario seguir avanzando en la racionalización del denominado “gasto público”, y no en el “gasto político” u “obras inútiles” hay que destacar que Europa tiene sobrecapacidad de estructuras con tanta obra publica inútil realizada en los últimos años, especialmente en España entre los años 2004-2009. Debemos ajustar los impuestos para obtener de forma estable los ingresos necesarios para así financiar el nivel deseado de “gasto público” y cumplir con los niveles de déficit públicos pactados con Bruselas para los próximos 3 años. Tampoco podemos negar que es vergonzoso pensar que desde los años 80 en España tan sólo hemos tenido tres superávits (en la época del boom inmobiliario) Cuidado! No se puede gastar más de lo que se ingresa señores, economía del hogar, en fin lamentable.

    Otro factor que está alterando negativamente la economía española es la inestabilidad política, provocando que la confianza del consumidor se sitúe en los 90,7 puntos en el mes de Mayo, siendo a finales de 2015 de 107,4 puntos, tal y como apuntan los datos publicados por el CIS. Ojo con la demagogia y el peronismo.

      El último factor que me gustaría tratar es el modelo de las autonomías, un modelo regional que no se adecua a los principios de igualdad, autonomía, responsabilidad y transparencia. Hay que garantizar el cumplimiento del principio constitucional de igualdad y reforzar la responsabilidad fiscal de los Gobiernos autonómicos, porque en caso contrario me temo que será inviable mantener 19 gobiernos autonómicos. Créanme cuando les digo que mantener a un sólo gobierno ya es costoso, imagínense 19 gobiernos. Todo lo que podríamos ahorrar en gasto inútil.

Comercio exterior ¿Motor de crecimiento?

Puede que simplemente sea la continuación de la famosa Gran Recesión de 2007 o puede que estemos en el comienzo de una nueva crisis.

Lo que está claro es que los responsables de la política económica no aprenden de los errores del pasado. Debemos intentar corregir nuestro modelo de crecimiento, que se basa exclusivamente en las exportaciones, es vital diversificarlo ¿Cómo? Fomentando la inversión y el consumo interior.

Es obvio que el crecimiento a base del comercio exterior en exclusive y a largo plazo, no es una buena medida. Esto se ve reflejado en países como China o Alemania, es decir, son las principales economías del mundo las que deciden sustentar una balanza comercial con capacidad de superávit indefinidamente. Estos países no pueden basar su crecimiento en ser acreedores de créditos a quien venden sus productos, ya que sino otra recesión está asegurada.

Como conclusión, no es de extrañar que con una balanza comercial de más del 3% que tiene la Eurozona, el BCE no logre estimular la depreciación del euro aún teniendo en cuenta que nos encontramos en deflación y por lo tanto en la denominada trampa de la liquidez, haciendo que los QE sean superfluos.

La convulsión europea

 Cada vez que leo noticias sobre la Unión Europea recuerdo una frase de, Abel Veiga Copo, profesor de derecho mercantil en ICADE: "La vieja Europa se muere precisamente de vejez. Necesita trabajadores, estudiantes, personas que vivan, trabajen, emprendan, consuman y sostengan un sistema que se convulsionará más pronto que tarde."

Y es que si hoy se suspende Schengen durante 2 años con el objetivo de detener el flujo masivo de refugiados, podemos asegurar con rotunda firmeza la incapacidad de gestión de todos los Estados miembros.

Es una locura suspender uno de los fundamentos y razón de ser de la UE, la libre circulación entre los países miembros. Si esto se aprobase deberíamos empezar a considerarnos "disolver" la Unión Europea.

Me pregunto cómo hoy en día aún puedan existir gobiernos que no asuman su incapacidad para gestionar estos problemas y se nieguen a pedir ayuda incluso a ejércitos extranjeros, parecen no darse cuenta o bien por orgullo o bien por ineptitud, que de esta forma están poniendo en peligro a toda la Unión.

Con todo esto hasta parece normal que países como Hungría, Alemania, Suecia o más recientemente Francia pidan la suspensión temporal de Schengen, pero no es normal. Lo normal sería encontrar un mecanismo para un reparto justo y solidario de los refugiados.

Pero que cabe de esperar de una Unión que no es capaz de ponerse de acuerdo para formalizar un pacto antiyihadista o un Banco Central que no es capaz de estimular el consumo más que inyectando 1,5 billones de euros a la economía, una política monetaria que muchos países no están combinando con una buena política fiscal y que poco a poco nos arrastran a esa "convulsión".